mikromort (from micro and death) is a risk unit defined as one-in-one-million chance of death. Micromorts can be used to measure the risk of various daily activities. A microprobability is a one-in-one million chance of multiple events; thus micromort is a microprobability of death. The concept of micromort was introduced by Ronald A. Howard who pioneered the modern practice of decision analysis.
Micromor for future activities can only be a rough assessment because certain circumstances will always have an impact. However, past historical figures of events can be used to provide park-balls, the average number.
Video Micromort
Example values ​​
Baseline
Leisure and sports
Travel
Activities that increase the risk of death by about one micromort, and the associated cause of death:
- Travel 6 miles (9.7 km) by motorcycle (accident)
- Travel 17 miles (27 km) on foot (accident)
- Travel 10 miles (or 20 miles) by bike (crash)
- Travel 230 miles (370 km) by car (accident) (or 250 miles)
- Travel 1000 miles (1600 km) away by jet (accident)
- Travel 6000 miles (9656 km) by train (accident)
- Travel 12,000 miles (19,000 km) with jets in the United States (terrorism)
More
Increased risk of death for other activities based on per event:
- Gantole - 8 micromor per trip
- Ecstasy (MDMA) Ã, - Between 0.5 and 13 micromorts per tablet (most cases involve other drugs)
- Born - 430 micromorts on the day of birth.
- Childbirth (vagina) - 120 micromor
- Childbirth (Cesarea) - 170 micromor
Maps Micromort
The micromort value
Willingness to pay
The micromor app measures the value that humans place at risk: for example, one can consider the amount of money one has to pay to make it accept a one-in-one-million chance of death (or otherwise the amount one might pay someone to avoid one-in- million possible deaths). When placed so, people claim high amounts but when inferred from their daily actions (eg, how much they are willing to pay for safety features on cars) the typical value is around $ 50 (in 2009). But the utility function is often not linear, ie the more people who have been spent on their safety, the less they are willing to spend to further improve their safety. Therefore, a $ 50 assessment should not be considered that human life (1 million micromorts) is worth $ 50,000,000. Furthermore, the local linearity of any utility curve means micromort is useful for risks and small rewards, not necessarily for great risk.
Values ​​life statistics
Government agencies use nominal Values ​​of Life Statistics (VSL) - or Values ​​to Prevent Death (VPF) - to evaluate the cost effectiveness of expenditures on protection. For example, in the UK, VSL stands at Ã,  £ 1.6 million for road repairs. Since road repairs have the effect of lowering the risk of large numbers of people by a small amount, the UK Department of Transport basically lowers the price of 1 Micromort at Ã, £ 1.60 (US $ 2.70). The US Department of Transportation uses VSL for US $ 6.2 million, at Micromort US $ 6.20.
Chronic Risk
Micromorts are best used to measure the size of the acute risk, ie immediate death. The risks of lifestyle, exposure to air pollution and so on are chronic risk, because they do not kill instantly, but reduce life expectancy. Ron Howard put such risks in his original work in 1979, for example one additional micromort of...
- Drink 0.5 liters of wine (liver cirrhosis)
- Smoking 1.4 cigarettes (cancer, heart disease)
- Spend 1 hour in a coal mine (black lung disease)
- Spend 3 hours in a coal mine (accident)
- Two days in New York or Boston in 1979 (air pollution)
- Living 2 months with smokers (cancer, heart disease)
- Drink Miami water for 1 year (cancer of chloroform)
- Eat 100 steaks baked with charcoal (cancer from benzopyrene)
- Travel 6000 miles (10,000 km) away with jets (cancer due to increased background radiation)
These risks are better expressed by using the associated microlife concept.
See also
- Decision analysis
- The decision theory
- Ellsberg paradox
- Unusual measurement unit list
- Microlife
- Pascal Bets
- Prudential principles
- The risk of destruction
References
Further reading
-
Ronald A. Howard (1984). "On Fates Comparable to Death". Management Science . 30 (4): 407-422. doi :. 10,1287/mnsc.30.4.407 Ã,
- Study Center & amp; Enhancement of Regulation. "What is MicroMort?". Archived from the original on April 15, 2013
Source of the article : Wikipedia
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